The question will resolve to yes if I determine that substantial modifications are made to the 'FIDE Regulations on Transgender Chess Players’ Registration on FIDE Directory' by January 1, 2028.
https://handbook.fide.com/chapter/TransgenderRegulations
I will primarily examine amendments in regulations 3 and 4.1 to determine whether trans women will "have the right to participate" in events for women, and if trans men will be permitted to retain titles achieved while competing as women.
Excerpt from regulations:
III. Temporary restrictions after change of the gender
These regulations apply to all competitions under the aegis of the Global Strategy Commission, Events Commission, and events providing qualification spots to the World Cup and World Team Championships.
The following restrictions shall be applied to a player after the change of the gender in FIDE ID:
In the event that the gender was changed from a male to a female the player has no right to participate in official FIDE events for women until further FIDE’s decision is made. Such decision should be based on further analysis and shall be taken by the FIDE Council at the earliest possible time, but not longer than within 2 (two) years period. There are no restrictions to play in the open section for a person who has changed the gender.
IV. Transfer of rights and liabilities
4.1. Titles. If a player holds any of the women titles, but the gender has been changed to a man, the women titles are to be abolished. Those can be renewed if the person changes the gender back to a woman and can prove the ownership of the respective FIDE ID that holds the title. The abolished women title may be transferred into a general title of the same or lower level (e.g., WGM may be transferred into FM, WIM into CM, etc.).
If a player has changed the gender from a man into a woman, all the previous titles remain eligible. The player may use only the published rating at the time the registration was changed, and all subsequent ratings when applying for women titles. No peak ratings or results that have been reached before the official gender change may be used to qualify for women titles after the legal gender change.
