What kind of ceasefire? Will a 2 month ceasefire and hostage deal like is currently negotiated count?

@strutheo you may wanna extend this

for those who want to know why it jumped, some idiot on twitter started the rumor

https://x.com/Vestboy_Myst/status/1803159746679083192

I waited until it showed on Wikipedia because most markets consider that a reliable source but alas - trust no one lol

good luck to me (and him!) I guess 🥲

Now related because as a complete idiot I went all-in and now I can't sell because this would go up to 85% and I'd lose half my investment. Guess that's a lesson woth 4 dollars ☠

oh no!

Actually it may be possible for me to recover financially from a 4kM loss (only 16 days of streak bonuses), but my calibration would be damaged beyond repair.
I'll just say that if that's the end of my time on Manifold, at least that will be a progres towards world peace and I'd be honoured if you were the one who makes a meme out of it (it : me blowing up) ^^

Calibration sucks and is a mental hurdle to users, pls remove it @JamesGrugett @SG

Wow if that Twitter lady makes mich quit manifold too I'll hate her even more

Why does this happen only when I decide to "give the steamroller technique a try" ?
Funny enough, I gave up on the Black Swan technique because what just happened "was not happening often enough"

it's not the end! sorry I also believed wikipedia and prompted you to get this down too!

(I'll be honored to meme you obvs but it's not happening)

and lol @strutheo plenty of people like it and it's a bitch to get to now - there's no need to remove it because some people feel disproportionately attached to it. instead maybe talk to @Mich about why it shouldn't be such a big burden?

also I'm not sure what that hate comment is about but ok...

@strutheo I think this is an argument for the "Reset button" feature we've long thought about adding. E.g. Spend 10k mana to reset your profit & calibration history.

Just having my calibration look weird wouldn't make me quit Manifold but I mean yeah I'm kinda attached to it, but I was already considering that as something important before knowing Manifold so... (I don't think I'd hit the reset button, I like having lots of data aggregated on a graph showing how well or how bad I've been doing since I started)

anyway now I'm in one of those weird counterbalances between wanting you to cash in on your bet, and not wanting to hope for someone to die @Mich

@shankypanky no worries, I had the choice to follow your bet or not, and I made the decision to follow so at the end of the day that's my mistake. (At the time I made a quick google search, wikipedia wasn't the only source anymore so I'm updating upwards how much the news on the Internet can be bs...).

that's an @ for another person :) but we're in this together I went in on a few markets based on the foolish assumption that by the time wikipedia updated it was somehow verified. fool me once...

Reset button seems good.just something to make people think they aren't ruining their account permanently . I hate how a few.dumb trades early on ( and even a mis click) still taint everything

"most markets consider wikipedia a reliable source" - how about we don't do that then? anyone can edit 95% of articles

yeah I agree

Stefanie hopping in after being mistakenly @'d, seeing Chomsky died but did not, maybe he'll live to see an Israel-Palestine ceasefire maybe not, and some random dude accidentally starting a debate on the end of calibration after maybe blowing up his whole balance and sending his calibration score down to hell

@Mich

DM me if you want a loan to float you for a while 🧡

@Mich to be fair, Manifold's calibration graphs are pretty flawed. For one, they still don't seem to count selling shares as an action; I do a lot of "buying low and selling high" and that wrecks my calibration

Are they even updating I can't tell anymore

They do update, albeit sometimes on a 24 hour delay it seems? Some markets seem to be randomly excluded for a reason I can’t tell.

They ALSO don’t count unlinked binaries or linked multiple choice… both of which I tend to do better in than binaries… 😭

But really the buy/sell discrepancy is annoying! They should definitely fix that. Because if you own 1000 YES shares and then buy 1000 NO shares to cancel them out, both count towards calibration. But if you “sell” instead, they don’t, even though there’s no actual difference.

The Jacobin jumped the gun on posting his obituary, took down the obituary and then reposted the obituary with a different title which no longer implies he is dead.

I’m not expecting much competence from the Jacobin but cmon lol

They went off one Twitter phds post I saw it in real time