Born December 7, 1928
1,000People are also trading
Table baseline for a man of 97 (born 7 December 1928) reaching 7 December 2028: on the SSA 2023 period life table, 999 of the 3,335 men alive at exact age 97 reach 100, so 30%, which is about where this market sits. Two adjustments cut against it: he had a major stroke in June 2023 and, per his family's 2024 statements, remains largely nonverbal with right-side impairment, which raises mortality well above the average 97-year-old's; and the SSA table itself is for the general population, with no selection for health. On the other side, past 95 the annual hazard is already in the 25 to 35% range and rising only slowly, so each year survived helps less than people expect. Nothing available today changes those odds; the first evidence that any drug moves mortality hazard in a long-lived mammal that lives with us comes from dog trials reading out around 2029 to 2031. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2
