Will JD Vance be president of the United States at any point before the end of January 2029?
23
100Ṁ17152029
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Temporary Presidencies Excluded:
If JD Vance serves as president solely due to a temporary or acting capacity (such as a brief succession triggered by another president’s incapacitation), that scenario will not be counted.
Only cases where JD Vance assumes the presidency in a permanent or constitutionally recognized manner will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Here is a related market with more accurate percentages: https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
Does "Acting President" count, for example these cases? https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment
Related questions
Related questions
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
27% chance
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
45% chance
Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?
15% chance
Will JD Vance be president of the United States before the end of 2033?
40% chance
Will JD Vance be US vice president on January 1st 2029?
78% chance
Will JD Vance ever be president?
50% chance
When, if at all, will JD Vance become president?
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will JD Vance be president for two weeks by mid 2027
21% chance
Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election?
15% chance