Will Nobel winning scientist James Watson become a centenarian?
Will Nobel winning scientist James Watson become a centenarian?
9
100Ṁ802028
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently age 96 when this question is made
Born April 6 1928
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will James D. Watson hit age 100?
32% chance
Will James Dewey Watson die in 2025?
35% chance
Will James D. Watson survive 2024?
97% chance
Will Steve Austad become centenarian?
34% chance
Will Elon Musk be a centenarian?
21% chance
Will Warren Buffet become a centenarian?
23% chance
Will James D. Watson outlive Noam Chomsky?
85% chance
Will Chen Ning Yang become the longest-lived Nobel laureate ever?
26% chance
Will Steve Horvath become a centenarian?
50% chance
Will Ray Kurzweil live to be a centenarian?
7% chance