Will Ray Kurzweil live to be a centenarian?
Basic
8
Ṁ908
2048
5%
chance

At the time of writing, Ray Kurzweil is 75 (born 1948/02/12).

As per the Social Security Administration's 2023 Trustees Report, in 2020, a male of Kurzweil's age (at the time) would be expected to live to the age of approximately 84.

It is my best judgment that Kurzweil:

1) genuinely believes that he will live to see the technological realization of indefinite life extension.

2) is exceptionally motivated to live until the technological realization of indefinite life extension.

3) has demonstrated an above-average aptitude for predicting the timelines of technological developments.

4) has demonstrated an above-average understanding of nutrition science as it pertains to promoting longevity (and will likely continue to improve his understanding as new evidence comes to light).

Resolves as YES if Ray Kurzweil is alive on 2048/02/12.

Resolves as NO otherwise.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules