@strutheo no

2 weeks

four more left!
trump wins pa

trump wins az

kamala wins electoral vote

kamala wins popular vote

Did Nancy lobby Shapiro off the ticket so her parlay has a better shot?

this is a great mean but just the two legs:

• trump wins pa

• kamala wins electoral vote

are very very unlikely. nancy likes her long shot bets

you can bet here too! /strutheo/which-of-the-bets-in-buccocapitals

Nate Silver thinks Trump is 97% to win the election if he wins PA. I assume he loses AZ in a high proportion of the 3%.

My calculation goes something like this:

99% Kamala wins convention

50% Trump wins PA over Kamala

3% Kamala wins electoral vote given the above

20% Trump wins AZ given the above

99% Kamala wins popular vote given the above

=0.3% the parlay hits. Market is WAY too high

Upon further reflection, the 3% and 20% should both be about double that. Still only 1.2%

I'm trying to be more liquid. Come take my limit. It's a great deal!

I think I cleared those Altho no

More now I’m broke

I'm trying to be more liquid. Come take my limit. It's a great deal!

"Trump wins PA" and "Kamala wins electoral vote" are pretty much mutually exclusive

related: /strutheo/which-of-the-bets-in-buccocapitals

this kid needs to understand correlations

This guy just fell outta the coconut tree