Definition of Replacement:
A “replacement” occurs if a confirmed cabinet member officially vacates their role. This could be from resigning, dismissal, or any other reason that has them no longer able to fulfil their role and they no longer hold the position title.
They will count once this happens, even if they don't actually get replaced by someone else before Trump's term ends.
Cabinet Roles Included:
This market applies to all Senate-confirmed cabinet-level positions traditionally regarded as part of the President’s cabinet, including but not limited to the Secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury, and other executive departments.
The count will be based on the number of cabinet members originally confirmed at the start of Trump’s term.
Threshold for Market Resolution:
If more than 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to YES.
If fewer than 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to NO.
If exactly 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to YES (since the prediction is for “at least” 50%, which implies exceeding the threshold).
1,000The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.
Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.
Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).
"If exactly 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will also resolve to NO (since the prediction is for “at least” 50%, which implies exceeding the threshold)."
No? If I say "At least ten people will come to the party" and exactly ten people come, that's 100% a fulfilled prediction.