Definition of Replacement:
A “replacement” occurs if a confirmed cabinet member officially vacates their role. This could be from resigning, dismissal, or any other reason that has them no longer able to fulfil their role and they no longer hold the position title.
They will count once this happens, even if they don't actually get replaced by someone else before Trump's term ends.
Cabinet Roles Included:
This market applies to all Senate-confirmed cabinet-level positions traditionally regarded as part of the President’s cabinet, including but not limited to the Secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury, and other executive departments.
The count will be based on the number of cabinet members originally confirmed at the start of Trump’s term.
Threshold for Market Resolution:
If more than 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to YES.
If fewer than 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to NO.
If exactly 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to YES (since the prediction is for “at least” 50%, which implies exceeding the threshold).
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If Trump dies, resigns, or is impeached, and Vance finishes out the term, I assume that this market also counts cabinet replacements in the post-Trump segment of the presidential term?
"If exactly 50% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will also resolve to NO (since the prediction is for “at least” 50%, which implies exceeding the threshold)."
No? If I say "At least ten people will come to the party" and exactly ten people come, that's 100% a fulfilled prediction.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?