Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?
6
19
Ṁ162Ṁ220
2039
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ600 play money
AI Alignment questions
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
49% chance
What percentage of Manifold poll respondents will agree that weak AGI has been achieved at the end of June 2024?
0.00
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Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
73% chance
By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?
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