Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

1kṀ3327

2029

34%

chance

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

52% chance

Will an AI be granted the same level of personhood as a corporation in the US by end of 2025?

10% chance

will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?

22% chance

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

36% chance

Will any country forbid the ownership of AI Agents recognized as legal persons by 2030?

11% chance

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

2053

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

38% chance

Which country will be the first to grant personhood or some form of legal rights to an AI or other digital intelligence?

Will any country declare an AI eligible to apply for citizenship by 2044?

30% chance

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Sort by:

I think yes because of the pressure of the AI e-celebrity's fans: https://manifold.markets/tailcalled/will-there-be-a-community-formed-ar

There are quite a number of UN member countries that score extremely highly on corruption perception indexes. 'No' bets assume that no AI or agent bribes or buys their way into legal personhood in any of the world's most corrupt or innovative countries, including ones that are very keen on capital flows.

@PipFoweraker A good point, but I doubt there will be AIs with that much autonomy (or continuous identity) by 2029. Allow a few more years and it gets much more likely imo.

predictedYES

@AngolaMaldives Legal autonomy to AI's could be granted by an executive order for most countries, which means the time from concept to execution allows for timeframes compressable down to less than a week. 6 years is more than one electoral cycle in most democratic countries. So against the deadline of 1 Jan 2029, I think the market is weighing too heavily on the negative.