Resolution Criteria
For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:
Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, OR
File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Republican in 2028, OR
Takes part in an official Republican presidential debate, OR
Appear on any state's Republican presidential primary ballot in 2028
The market will resolve NO for candidates who:
Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028
Do not take any of the above actions
Run as an independent or for another party's nomination
The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.
Should someone hold themselves out as a candidate for president but involves a scheme to allow the person who holds himself out as a candidate to be chosen as vice president as part of a scheme to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as they hold themselves out as the candidate to serve as president.
[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg
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@traders Rules update:
Should someone hold themselves out as a candidate for president but involves a scheme to allow the person who holds himself out as a candidate to be chosen as vice president as part of a scheme to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as they hold themselves out as the candidate to serve as president.
[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg
@FergusArgyll Given the significant ambiguity regarding who is a natural-born US citizen[1] and the significant headwinds towards a possible constitutional amendment revoking the natural-born citizen clause[2]. I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.
[1] Eugene D. Mazo, “Rethinking Presidential Eligibility Forum: Election Law and the Presidency,” Fordham L. Rev. 85, no. 3 (2016–2017): 1045–72; Paul Clement and Neal Katyal, “On the Meaning of ‘Natural Born Citizen’ Constitutional Law: Commentary,” Harv. L. Rev. F. 128, no. 5 (2014–2015): 161–64; Lawrence B. Solum, “Originalism and the Natural Born Citizen Clause,” Mich. L. Rev. First Impressions 107 (2008–2009): 22
[2] Ilya Shapiro et al., The Proposed Amendments, NCC Constitutional Convention, Constitution Drafting Project, (National Constitution Center), 9, accessed December 13, 2024 https://constitutioncenter.org; Akhil Reed Amar, America’s Unwritten Constitution: The Precedents and Principles We Live By (New York: Basic Books, 2012), 452–56