Who will run for the 2028 Republican nomination for the presidency? [Add Answers]
34
3.3kṀ9885
2028
52%
Ron Desantis
6%
Donald Trump, Sr
41%
Greg Abbott
69%
Nikki Haley
42%
Ted Cruz
6%
Mike Pence
26%
Tim Scott
32%
Vivek Ramaswamy
15%
Tucker Carlson
54%
Glenn Youngkin
14%
Kristi Noem
22%
Mike Johnson
14%
Matt Gaetz
19%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
14%
Lauren Boebert
50%
Tom Cotton
6%
Elon Musk
14%
Kari Lake
28%
Sarah Sanders
17%
Chris Sununu

Resolution Criteria

For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:

  • Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, OR

  • File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Republican in 2028, OR

  • Takes part in an official Republican presidential debate, OR

  • Appear on any state's Republican presidential primary ballot in 2028

The market will resolve NO for candidates who:

  • Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028

  • Do not take any of the above actions

  • Run as an independent or for another party's nomination

The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.

On Adding Answers:

  • I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

  • If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

I will reserve judgment on whether somebody's eligible for the presidency until they either choose not to run on Super Tuesday or a consensus of state courts of last resort (or the Supreme Court, should it get involved) finds that they are ineligible for the presidency.

Should someone hold themselves out as a candidate for president but involves a scheme to allow the person who holds himself out as a candidate to be chosen as vice president as part of a scheme to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as they hold themselves out as the candidate to serve as president.



[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy