>Will resolve as NO if none of them are solved

Then the market should not have been dependent...

@sbares ?

@AbhinavSrinivas Since a possible scenario (the most likely one, even) is that everything resolves NO, the probabilities should not be forced to add up to 100%. I'm not even sure it is possible to resolve everything NO on a dependent market?

@sbares is it possible to add another answer

@AbhinavSrinivas I don’t think you can after the fact if you didn’t allow additional answers from the beginning, but you could edit one to be, eg, “Riemann Hypothesis or None”. That does unfairly tip the odds toward whichever answer you select though. You could also N/A the market and make a new one.

@JimHays I changed the market so that it never resolves. I’ll close it when one of them is solved.

@AbhinavSrinivas Thank you for doing so! I had briefly thought this was one of the new independent multiple choice markets.

P vs NP seems immortal

“Will resolve the last bet was >2 weeks ago.”

What does this mean?

@JimHays edited it

I still don’t understand. What answers will you resolve, and how will you resolve them?

@JimHays for instance if p vs np gets proven tomorrow, it will be resolved yes, and everything else will be resolved no. if nothing gets proven before 2030, then the whole market will be resolved no. if at any point in time none of them are proven and the largest trade was >2 weeks ago, i will resolve the whole market as n/a

@AbhinavSrinivas Ah, so there’s almost no point in betting here

@JimHays you can still profit though :)

@AbhinavSrinivas Not if it N/As. That claws back all profits

@JimHays fine i think i’ll remove the N/A condition

hodge also seems likely

Navier Stokes and P v NP are both plausible, if very unlikely, to me. Yang Mills and Riemann are jokes, no.

@Najawin jokes as in easy or as in imposssible?

@ZoravurSingh I mean. Not impossible. But the idea of anyone proving Yang Mills or Riemann in the next 6 years is a joke. I don't know enough about Hodge or BSD to comment, but these two are just not happening. 0% chance. Yang Mills in particular is wild, to even get close to Yang Mills you'd be, like, solving multiple infamously open questions in Foundations of Physics. The waves that would be made from someone working towards this would be massive, everyone would know, even 6 years out.

@Najawin Even given the change in question statement, I stand behind my view that Riemann and Yang Mills will not be the first to fall. With that said, as a non CS person I think I was too bullish on P v NP, simply because everyone seems to agree that the answer is "no". BSD also seems plausible, after Navier Stokes, listening to Wiles on it.