upgraded to basic

7.5Mw would be the weakest strongest earthquake in at least 10 years. With ~half of the year left, I'm going with the field against Japan at >4:1 odds

bump

The Japan earthquake is still the largest:

List of earthquakes in 2024 - Wikipedia

I think there was some confusion because some news reports listed the Taiwan earthquake as 7.7. That came from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which uses a different scale: Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale - Wikipedia.

There was a 7.5 in Japan on January 1st: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

There was just a major quake in Taiwan, initial estimate is 7.4: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000m9g4/executive

@benshindel Your comment about the results not adding up to 100% (and having to bet everything with "NO" so it adds up to 100-ish) is now even MORE accurate, now that a bunch of new countries just got added to the options, lol :D

Happy betting!

@PaintspotInfez Thanks, so much free mana lol

I don’t understand how this market will operate given that it’s an unlinked binary and there’s no Other option? What if the largest earthquake is in an unlisted country?

@benshindel New countries can be added, at least

@Tumbles yes that is how i thought it worked back when i made this @benshindel you should be able to add more, or just ask me to

Okay but the options don't add up to 100 lol

@benshindel I guess i'll just bet everything down

@benshindel i feel like this is true of all my markets LOL i never notice

@strutheo I’ve made so much mana just betting NO on everything in unlinked markets. I’ve also made a ton of mana just betting NO on things in general. I’m naturally skeptical of most things. My calibration curve is almost entirely below the line, so I’m much better at knowing when to bet NO than YES 😆

@benshindel im with you, i like being a NO better

turkiye currently has the highest earthquake so far this year

You might want to N/A and remake this market, it shouldn't be independent options

@Tumbles what if two earthquakes tie? i figured i would do 50-50 (ie mag 7.5 in two different countries)

@strutheo If two earthquakes tie you can resolve them both 50-50 in a dependent market as well

@Tumbles At least I'm pretty sure! Uhhh lemme ping @Joshua I'm pretty certain they know the answer

@Tumbles also is there a way to make it so people cant make 'other' they can only add more countries

i guess as other countries get added 'other' shrinks

@strutheo All you can do is resolve "other" N/A whenever someone makes it. You can write "Don't make other" in the description if it keeps happening.

Because you made this an independents market other won't naturally shrink as other countries are added. People can bet it down, but it's pretty weird. If you don't N/A the whole market I would definitely recommend N/Aing 'other' at least

It works fine for something like this to be independent, just means people have to manually arbitrage. If you did it as dependent you'd have to have an other.

@Joshua This being independent is literally Tumbles bait. I'm too neurotic to just let the market percentages total 1000%. It's finals time I'm supposed to be studying you can't do this to me Strutheo

@Tumbles next time lol