Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2024?
22
288
1.9k
2025
83%
Japan
36%
Indonesia
21%
Philippines
20%
Chile
17%
China
16%
Haiti
14%
Nepal
12%
Afghanistan
9%
Turkiye
8%
Vanuatu
8%
United States
8%
Mexico
7%
Ethiopia
7%
Tonga
7%
Peru
7%
New Zealand
6%
Taiwan
5%
Morocco
4%
Qatar
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bought Ṁ50 Taiwan NO

The Japan earthquake is still the largest:

List of earthquakes in 2024 - Wikipedia

I think there was some confusion because some news reports listed the Taiwan earthquake as 7.7. That came from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which uses a different scale: Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale - Wikipedia.

Japan
bought Ṁ50 Japan YES

There was a 7.5 in Japan on January 1st: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

Taiwan
bought Ṁ10 Taiwan YES

There was just a major quake in Taiwan, initial estimate is 7.4: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000m9g4/executive

bought Ṁ10 Ethiopia NO

@benshindel Your comment about the results not adding up to 100% (and having to bet everything with "NO" so it adds up to 100-ish) is now even MORE accurate, now that a bunch of new countries just got added to the options, lol :D

Happy betting!

bought Ṁ20 Mexico NO

@PaintspotInfez Thanks, so much free mana lol

I don’t understand how this market will operate given that it’s an unlinked binary and there’s no Other option? What if the largest earthquake is in an unlisted country?

@benshindel New countries can be added, at least

@Tumbles yes that is how i thought it worked back when i made this @benshindel you should be able to add more, or just ask me to

bought Ṁ45 of Sweden NO

Okay but the options don't add up to 100 lol

@benshindel I guess i'll just bet everything down

@benshindel i feel like this is true of all my markets LOL i never notice

bought Ṁ35 of Qatar NO

@strutheo I’ve made so much mana just betting NO on everything in unlinked markets. I’ve also made a ton of mana just betting NO on things in general. I’m naturally skeptical of most things. My calibration curve is almost entirely below the line, so I’m much better at knowing when to bet NO than YES 😆

@benshindel im with you, i like being a NO better

reposted

turkiye currently has the highest earthquake so far this year

sold Ṁ10 of Morocco NO

You might want to N/A and remake this market, it shouldn't be independent options

@Tumbles what if two earthquakes tie? i figured i would do 50-50 (ie mag 7.5 in two different countries)

@strutheo If two earthquakes tie you can resolve them both 50-50 in a dependent market as well

@Tumbles At least I'm pretty sure! Uhhh lemme ping @Joshua I'm pretty certain they know the answer

@Tumbles also is there a way to make it so people cant make 'other' they can only add more countries

i guess as other countries get added 'other' shrinks

@strutheo All you can do is resolve "other" N/A whenever someone makes it. You can write "Don't make other" in the description if it keeps happening.

Because you made this an independents market other won't naturally shrink as other countries are added. People can bet it down, but it's pretty weird. If you don't N/A the whole market I would definitely recommend N/Aing 'other' at least

It works fine for something like this to be independent, just means people have to manually arbitrage. If you did it as dependent you'd have to have an other.

@Joshua This being independent is literally Tumbles bait. I'm too neurotic to just let the market percentages total 1000%. It's finals time I'm supposed to be studying you can't do this to me Strutheo

@Tumbles next time lol

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