🏖️What will happen in August 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Plus
135
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resolved Sep 1
Resolved
YES
United States wins the most medals
Resolved
YES
Heat wave causes 100 or more deaths in a single country
Resolved
YES
tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
Trump tweets at least once
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic with no stick figures in it
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
United States wins the men's basketball tournament
Resolved
YES
Hurricane landfall in Florida
Resolved
YES
Tropical storm (or stronger) landfall in Florida
Resolved
YES
A YouTube video specifically about Augustus Octavian, Augusto Pinochet, body augmentation, Gustavo Fring, or wind gusts is posted and gets >1M views
Resolved
YES
kamala harris annunces vp running mate
Resolved
YES
jimmy carter, joe biden, and noam chomsky all alive at end of month
Resolved
YES
American women win soccer tournament
Resolved
YES
france gets more gold medals than UK
Resolved
YES
spacex launches 10 or more rockets
Resolved
YES
apple is larger than microsoft market cap at end of month
Resolved
YES
The monthly "Has weak AGI been achieved" poll reveals >= 23% of Manifold users agree weak AGI has been achieved (excluding "no opinion")

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ250 Answer #7f7i7dnlcb NO

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/28/g-s1-19934/faa-spacex-falcon9-grounded-polaris-dawn

I think this will probably take a week or two at least.

sold Ṁ18 Answer #1bb9d6295486 NO

@SteveSokolowski @strutheo
Is this just main Olympics in August or does it include paraolympics?
Is there a record of the medal table at end of July to deduct from final medal table to get August medals?

I thought the understanding was that it was for the Olympics.

@SteveSokolowski
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-usa-win-the-most-gold-meda
resolved as 50% but this market is for "happen in August" so I don't know.

If it was for all of main olympics, shouldn't it have resolved at close to same time as above market? That it remains open makes me wonder if it is waiting for paraolympics or to find medal table info at end of July.

Is there something that tells us what "the understanding" was?

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
bought Ṁ896 web3isgoinggreat has... YES

@Kraalnaxx NOT Pokemon Presents or game specific direct (ala Splatoon 3 Direct). Sorry, was barred from editing title.

Heat wave causes 100 or more deaths in a single country

@strutheo This one can resolve. I think you picked 50% before, since the US tied with China, right?

A YouTube video specifically about Augustus Octavian, Augusto Pinochet, body augmentation, Gustavo Fring, or wind gusts is posted and gets >1M views
bought Ṁ18 A YouTube video spec... YES

Thanks 👍

Heat wave causes 100 or more deaths in a single country

@strutheo on what basis?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-08/how-many-people-have-died-from-extreme-heat-officials-struggle-to-track
suggests different measurements from 2 to 600 per year just for Miami Dade county.

A YouTube video specifically about Augustus Octavian, Augusto Pinochet, body augmentation, Gustavo Fring, or wind gusts is posted and gets >1M views
bought Ṁ250 A YouTube video spec... YES

No clue what the second one is about lol, but the first one might just about count as an edge case haha

It's about how in India, wind ("even a light breeze") used to cause power cuts (due to flimsy infrastructure), but now they hope it's windy because the power cuts are all caused by A/C overuse instead. If I'm parsing it correctly.

I think the first one is more directly about gusts though.

@SteveSokolowski resolve pls

Tom Cruise showed up, huge gaffe, reputation of the Olympics permanently ruined /s

I'm not sure what you want me to resolve. The text of this option is pretty clear - I'm not the person who has the authority to resolve it.

its the reply fucntion automatically tagging steve. i got it, thanks

tesla catches fire as reported by news or tesla-fire.com

By the way, the most astonishing part of the ceremony is that anyone watching believed that LA has no homeless people, and that everyone is rich and a star.

@strutheo what did you think?

what did he do? i just saw him carrying a flag on a motorcycle?

Watch the whole sequence. He did more than that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSLi5aVQeIc

As the comments below the video say, he certainly doesn't look like he's 61. When my grandfather was 61, he had glaucoma and wasn't able to see and my grandmother was in a wheelchair. If anything, the best lesson from this is how medicine has advanced.

That said, I don't think it's astonishing compared to other stunts he's done. The only dangerous part was that he had no backup line.

But perhaps his other stunts, like hanging onto a plane as it takes off, are so far above astonishing that it isn't appropriate to compare to those.

He jumped off the top of the stadium in Paris in front of the entire crowd https://x.com/olympics/status/1823300442698252296?s=46&t=WavuhYisKVKuwWFJUqwhzQ

Ok I'll watch haha

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