
♟️What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? [ADD RESPONSES]
♟️What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? [ADD RESPONSES]
40
510Ṁ2883resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YESfour or more draws
Resolved
YESfive or more draws
Resolved
YESsix or more draws
Resolved
YESthree or more draws
Resolved
YESitalian game opening is played
Resolved
YESthe champion wins at least once with the black pieces
Resolved
YESboth players lose with the white pieces
Resolved
YESA position that has never occurred in the Lichess Masters database is reached within the first 5 moves (10 ply) in any game
Resolved
YESA player loses a game on time (doesn't include not showing up to the game)
Resolved
YES7 or more draws
Resolved
NOFour knights game opening is played
Resolved
NOruy lopez opening is played
Resolved
NOevan's gambit is played
Resolved
NOboth players win with the black pieces
Resolved
NOan irregular opening is played (A00 in the opening book)
Resolved
NOSicilian opening played at least once
Resolved
NOSodium attack, Ware, Bongcloud or a3 opening played
Resolved
NOPawn is captured en passant
Resolved
NOqueenside castle happens at least once per player across multiple games
Resolved
NOCheckmate on the board
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@strutheo This resolves to NO - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024 lists queenside castle only once (Game 6)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.