🔵What will happen before Destiny retires from streaming? [ADD RESPONSES]
🔵What will happen before Destiny retires from streaming? [ADD RESPONSES]
20
2.8kṀ31412080
97%
Human walks on the Moon again
91%
One Piece has ended
90%
Hasanabi retires from livestreaming
90%
Putin no longer leader of Russia
90%
MikeFromPA retires from livestreaming
89%
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
88%
Vaush retires from livestreaming
88%
Ukraine-Russia conflict is resolved
87%
China-Taiwan conflict fully starts
84%
1500 or more official pokemon
56%
Destiny dies
54%
He gets married again
50%
pickleball in the olympics
50%
ukraine joins nato
50%
Plays Rust on stream again
50%
Human walks on Mars
48%
He has another child (or adopts one)
48%
August retires / fired / is replaced as lead editor
43%
Streams on Twitch again
41%
American elects its 50th president (with Biden being #46, no Cleveland-conscious counting)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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