What will the 51st state of the United States of America be?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ800Ṁ3.4k

2041

48%

Puerto Rico

26%

Washington District of Columbia

11%

Cuba

Greenland

Other

Taiwan

1.2%

Venezuela

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/51st_state

Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple new states are added simultaneously: The market will resolve 50/50 between those states.

Naming: This market resolves based on the colloquial area name, not the official state name. For example, if DC becomes a state with the official name "The State of Columbia", it would still resolve to the "Washington District of Columbia" answer option.

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@strutheo Please clarify how this would resolve if multiple new states are added at the same time!

Aslo, I assume this market is about the colloquially-referred-to area and not the actual name of the state? For example, if DC is renamed "The State of Columbia"?, the market still resolves to "Washington District of Columbia"?

@Conflux

both resolve 50 50

yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

@strutheo What if more than one option are admitted together as one state?

Very curious the fact is Cuba missing

How would this resolve if Puerto Rico and the USVI were admitted together as one state?

not worth betting due to time horizon, but i think PR is far more likely due to some level of bipartisan support, that it could be a competitive state, and zero constitutional issues. There is simply zero incentive for Republicans to make DC a state and give Dems 2 Senate seats.