Which of the following indexes and (crypto)currencies will grow more in 5 years from today?
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61
1k
2029
11%
S&P 500
31%
NASDAQ Composite
17%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
19%
BTC
12%
ETH
6%
SOL
1.6%
USD
1.6%
EUR
1.6%
JPY

This market will resolve based on the growth of each of the listed assets between 2024-05-16 and 2029-05-16. The asset that will grow the most will "win".

Here're the baseline values, from marketwatch.com, coindesk.com and bloomberg.com:

S&P 500: 5308.15

NASDAQ Composite: 16742.39

Dow (DJIA): $22.47

BTC: $65950.32

ETH: $3016.79

SOL: $161.52

USD: $1

EUR: $1.0876

JPY: $0.00648

On 2029-05-16 I will similarly retrieve the values for these assets, calculate how much they have grown (or diminished) over 5 years and will resolve the market accordingly. Since the assets are evaluated in USD, the growth for USD will necessarily be 1x or 0%.

I do not bet on my own questions.

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What does "grow more" mean here? Are we predicting which one grows the most or whether the index finishes above or below where it is today?

@SethSoarenson For which one of these assets the ratio (value in USD on 2029-05-16 / value in USD on 2024-05-16) will be the highest.

$1 will always be $1, so it's growth will be 1x or +0%.

Suppose 1 EUR will be = $1.5. This translates into 1.5/1.08876 = 1.38x growth or +38%.

If 1 JPY will be = $0.005, then it will diminish by 0.005 / 0.00648 = 0.77x or -23%.

So out of these 3 assets EUR grew the most.

Does it make sense?

@OlegEterevsky cool, so if I understand correctly, if you made this same question 5 years ago, ETH would have won because it grew 1770% and every other chart would have resolved no?

@SethSoarenson Sounds about right. The options are mutually exclusive.