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This is why we can't have nice things

https://manifold.markets/spiderduckpig/free-mana-as-long-as-no-more-than-1 3000 more

3000 free mana, as long as no more than 10 traders defect

50% chance. I will place a decently sized NO limit order at 50% on this market. If no more than 10 people (excluding me) bet NO, the market resolves YES, and you get the mana from my limit order by betting YES against it. If more than 10 distinct people aside from me bet NO, the market resolves NO. The liquidity of the market is low, so you get very little personally from betting NO. "Betting NO" counts the number of distinct people who have (except for me of course, putting the initial limit order) placed a NO trade or filled, even partially, a NO limit order, at any time. Selling a YES share does not count as betting NO. This will be resolved based on the trade log history. As an example, if 11 distinct people bet NO, the market would resolve NO. Resolves YES on Halloween if the defection threshold is not reached by then. I will not bet on this market aside from that, and will not use any kind of alt account or rigging.

@spiderduckpig this is fun

Danny, Philliesdog, Ammon Lam, notbayesian, Jackp, and I have all bought 'NO'as shown in the trade log.

That's 6 defectors.

Should "as long as more than 5 people don't defect" be understood as "as long as no more than 5 people defect"? The way you phrased it technically means "as long as more than 5 people cooperate".

@vee You're right, sorry, that is the correct wording, I will modify it. Hopefully the description is clear enough

@AmmonLam Some people just want to watch the world burn

@BorisBartlog I've done my good deed for today

I am a newbie and I am mana starving.

Please convince me not to bet "no" to get the almost-guaranteed 8 mana. You have until 3:00 ET 10/29.

I know it's so little... And I don't want to be an awful greedy person.

(At the meta level, if you can convince me, maybe more people will be convinced, so it makes "yes" more likely)

@DannyqnOht You'll get way more for less if you bet YES and others don't muck things up

This is a good point. Spending 50 to get 58 isn't nearly as good as spending 50 to get 100.

Do we currently have 3 defects? Or 2? Does JackP's filled limit for 49 count as a defect?

AWWWW FUDGE

I meant to make a limit order that would buy no if it ever went below 25% chance.

I didn't think it through right and accidentally filled. Sorry everyone :(

I undid it - @spiderduckpig can we not count me? I don't want to hurt the count accidentally, and it doesn't seem in the spirit of a true defection. I will not bet on this market any more either way.

@DannyqnOht I don't think it works like that, unless the creator wants to amend the resolution conditions
Currently one more 'NO' trader will settle this

Assuming you're correct that it doesn't work like that!

If you're incorrect, and if jackp's orders don't count (since it's not clear that they're "no" trades, they're filled limit orders), then we still need 3 more!

@DannyqnOht The description makes it pretty clear that limit orders count as long as they're at least partly filled.
With my last trade (buying NO) I'm pretty sure we're all done here... but, of course, I could be wrong. We will see what @spiderduckpig makes of the trade log and eventual resolution.

😭

@DannyqnOht Yes, Boris is correct, though it doesn't matter since ItsMe has pre-empted it anyways. Sorry about any confusion, I will try to use better wording next time

Do trade count as bet no, or only no holder?

Do unfulfilled no limit order count as bet no?

@notbayesian it says that you can sell and it doesnt have an effect, and that a limit order has to be at least partially filled in the market description

@notbayesian the number of distinct people excluding me who have ever placed a NO bet in the trade history