Will the odds ratio of an embryonically-selected individual marrying/entering civil union with another embryonically-selected individual as opposed to any individual surpass 2 before 2050? The definition of embryonic selection is broad for this market: any individual born from an embryo directly selected amongst other embryos through a medical intervention.

Claude please clarify this market:

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if a peer-reviewed scientific study, demographic registry, or sociological paper finds that the odds ratio of assortative mating among embryonically-selected individuals is greater than 2.0.

An embryonically-selected individual is defined as any person born from an embryo that was directly selected from a pool of multiple embryos through medical intervention (e.g., IVF combined with PGT-A, PGT-M, PGT-SR, PGT-P, or other genetic/phenotypic screening methods).

Mathematical definition of the Odds Ratio (OR):

The odds ratio is defined as: $$\text{OR} = \frac{\text{Odds of an embryonically-selected person marrying/partnering with another embryonically-selected person}}{\text{Odds of a non-selected person marrying/partnering with an embryonically-selected person}}$$

Formally: $$\text{OR} = \frac{P(\text{Partner is Selected} \mid \text{Self is Selected}) / P(\text{Partner is Non-Selected} \mid \text{Self is Selected})}{P(\text{Partner is Selected} \mid \text{Self is Non-Selected}) / P(\text{Partner is Non-Selected} \mid \text{Self is Non-Selected})}$$

Specific conditions for resolution:

• Scope of Unions: "Marrying/entering civil union" includes legally recognized marriages, civil unions, or stable cohabiting domestic partnerships as defined in the primary study.

• Source of Truth: The market will resolve based on the first published peer-reviewed sociological, genetic, or demographic study that explicitly calculates or provides sufficient raw data to calculate this odds ratio for a representative regional or global cohort.

• Target Cohort and Cutoff: Because the prompt does not specify a cutoff date or target year, the market creator is highly encouraged to edit this description to specify a target year (e.g., "by December 31, 2050") or a specific registry. If no cutoff is added, the market will resolve to YES the first time a study finds an OR > 2 among cohorts with a median age of 25 or older, or NO if the first comprehensive studies of these adult cohorts find the OR is $\le$ 2.

Background

Preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) was first performed in the 1990s to select embryos free of specific monogenic diseases (PGT-M). Since then, selection has expanded widely to include screening for aneuploidy (PGT-A), and more recently, polygenic risk scores (PGT-P) for complex traits and adult-onset diseases.

Assortative mating is the non-random pairing of individuals based on similar phenotypes, genotypes, or social backgrounds. Because IVF and embryonic selection are strongly correlated with higher socioeconomic status, parental education, and specific geographic areas, offspring from selected embryos may naturally experience high rates of assortative mating due to shared environmental, educational, and social circles, even in the absence of explicit conscious preferences for "selected" partners. This market tracks whether these factors concentrate these individuals into unions at a rate of more than double what would be expected by random pairing.

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