• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • Public acknowledgement by both sides

  • Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran

  • Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran war as actively and sustainably occurring

  • Other similar events indicating active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict

Note: Drum-beating propaganda or symbolic actions will not resolve the question to "yes".

• Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of ambiguity, the creator may use alternative resolution methods. These include:

  • Resolving based on the market probability staying above or below a certain percentage for a period of time.

  • Conducting a sufficiently large poll.

The creator states they will resolve based on the spirit of the question and that traders will not be caught on a technicality.

• Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query about specific news headlines, the creator has confirmed that a single headline is not sufficient to meet the “media consensus” criterion for a YES resolution.

• Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a query about a recent military event, the creator has stated that a single strike is not sufficient to meet the "sustained manner" criterion for a YES resolution. The creator will wait at least "a day or two" to see if an initial event develops into a sustained conflict.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query, the creator has confirmed that a formal, constitutional declaration of war is not required for this market to resolve to Yes.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query for more concrete criteria, the creator has clarified the following:

Sufficient for a YES resolution:

• A sustained campaign of military action with the intent of regime change.

• A significant ground troop deployment in ongoing active conflict with Iranian forces.

NOT sufficient for a YES resolution (in isolation):

• Very limited rounds of very targeted strikes.

• An assassination mission against Iranian leadership.

The creator notes that other factors (e.g., language from media and US leadership) could still tip these scenarios towards a YES resolution.