Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at
/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
Feel free to suggest other projects that might be added.
Market clarifications
01 Cybercab is any Tesla 2 seater vehicle i.e. doesn't matter if called different things in different places. Operating means autonomously without any Tesla safety monitor or driver in vehicles. Less than 10 is just testing, 10 or more operating is needed to be considered operating. Robotaxi means available for public hire. Fairly short journeys only is ok as long as 2km trips on public roads is possible.
02 Optimus = humanoid robot. May need to wait for confirmation of whether working rather than training. Working means expected to continue doing such tasks pretty much as long as task continues to be needed. Training at a task as a means of developing or fine tuning the AI systems where robots are likely to move on to other tasks rather than continuing to do those tasks.
03 Grok 5 is next major release of Tesla AI. It needs to be a next generation so Grok 4.7 coming after Grok 4.6 is not sufficient. It needs to be a successor model to grok 4.x series but can be called something other than Grok 5.
04 & 05 States are US states or other countries.
Let me know if more clarifications are needed or desirable.
Elon projects dates megamarket
1
Ṁ2.2kṀ5102028
55%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20260901 i.e. 01 Sept 2026
59%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261001 i.e.01 Oct 2026
66%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261101 i.e.01 Nov 2026
72%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261201 i.e.01 Dec 2026
74%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
31%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
37%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
50%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
63%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20271001 i.e.01 Oct 2027
45%
03 Grok 5 released before 20261201 i.e.01 Dec 2027
50%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
55%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270201 i.e.01 Feb 2027
59%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270301 i.e.01 Mar 2027
63%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
45%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
50%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
55%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
59%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
37%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
45%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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