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MANIFOLD
Elon projects dates megamarket
25
Ṁ2.2kṀ5.3k
2028
97%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261001 i.e.01 Oct 2026
97%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261101 i.e.01 Nov 2026
97%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20261201 i.e.01 Dec 2026
97%
01 Cybercab operating as robotaxi before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
15%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
25%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
34%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
39%
02 Optimus working (not training) at Tesla before 20271001 i.e.01 Oct 2027
22%
03 Grok 5 released before 20261201 i.e.01 Dec 2027
58%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
62%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270201 i.e.01 Feb 2027
63%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270301 i.e.01 Mar 2027
67%
03 Grok 5 released before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
20%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
54%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
57%
04 Robotaxis operating in 5 states before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
11%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270101 i.e.01 Jan 2027
28%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270401 i.e.01 April 2027
40%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20270701 i.e.01 July 2027
40%
05 Robotaxis operating in 10 states before 20271001 i.e.01 Oct 2027

Generally I am excluding Starship projects because I have a Starship megamarket at
/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket

Feel free to suggest other projects that might be added.

Market clarifications
01 Cybercab is any Tesla 2 seater vehicle i.e. doesn't matter if called different things in different places. Operating means autonomously without any Tesla safety monitor or driver in vehicles. Less than 10 is just testing, 10 or more operating is needed to be considered operating. Robotaxi means available for public hire. Fairly short journeys only is ok as long as 2km trips on public roads is possible.

02 Optimus = humanoid robot. May need to wait for confirmation of whether working rather than training. Working means expected to continue doing such tasks pretty much as long as task continues to be needed. Training at a task as a means of developing or fine tuning the AI systems where robots are likely to move on to other tasks rather than continuing to do those tasks.

03 Grok 5 is next major release of Tesla AI. It needs to be a next generation so Grok 4.7 coming after Grok 4.6 is not sufficient. It needs to be a successor model to grok 4.x series but can be called something other than Grok 5.

04 & 05 States are US states or other countries.

Let me know if more clarifications are needed or desirable.

Market context
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bought Ṁ40 YES

About 40 cybercab operating in austin

@brianwang I had heard a 45 figure for Cybercabs added to fleet but wasn't sure if they were all operating. Where does your 40 figure come from?

I may well wait before resolving to check this isn't a short term stunt but does seem like the remaining cybercabs operating ... will resolve yes.

Latest trips on https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla&area=houston
currently include XVF2644, XVF 2645, XVF2624, XVF2571

XVF2642, XVF2626, XVF2629, XVF3181

XVF2247, XVF3182

Todays logged trips include
XVF2565, XVF2623, XVF2627, XVF2648, XVF2571, XVF2569

bought Ṁ70 YES

XVF2624, XVF2626

XVF2641, XVF2525

XVF3175, XVF3176. XVF1525, XVF2629, XVF3182

bought Ṁ366 NO

Doesn't look like any Cybercabs are operating as robotaxis yet, but I will wait a couple of days past launch event to see what is said before resolving 1 Sep 2026 market.