The U.S. federal government entered a shutdown on October 1, 2025, after funding lapsed. This market concerns federal employees who were furloughed (i.e., placed in non-work, non-pay status due to the lapse in appropriations) during this shutdown.

Since 2019, the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act (GEFTA) has been understood to guarantee retroactive pay for furloughed federal employees after a shutdown, and OPM’s current shutdown guidance (updated Sept. 28, 2025) cites 31 U.S.C. §1341(c)(2) to that effect. However, during the present shutdown the White House OMB circulated guidance and a memo suggesting back pay may require new appropriations, creating public dispute over what will happen this time.

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, after the end of the October 2025 shutdown, federal employees who were furloughed during this shutdown are paid retroactive salary covering their furlough period(s). It resolves to NO if (a) an enacted law or binding official guidance states furloughed federal employees will not receive back pay for this shutdown, or (b) 90 days elapse after the shutdown ends with no back-pay disbursement and an official statement indicates it will not be provided. Payments or policies affecting contractors or excepted (working-without-pay) employees do not affect this market’s outcome; only furloughed federal employees count.

Resolution will be based on official sources, such as:

• OPM shutdown/back-pay guidance and updates;

• the text of an enacted law (e.g., GEFTA/31 U.S.C. §1341(c)(2)) as published on