OpenAI has recently announced that they are training a new frontier-scale model. How much will this model cost?

By "gpt-4.5" here I mean any model that is clearly announced as a more capable newer generation of model, ideally whatever is the output of the training run they are currently performing. If they call the model "gpt-5" or "gpt-4.25" or "gpt-next" or anything like this that will count as "gpt-4.5" for the purpose of this question.

This will be an average of input and output prices per million tokens, with the formula (output price + 2x input price) / 3. I will take the pricing for the cheapest option available that is the same model (e.g. gpt-4-8k, not gpt-4-32k). On this metric claude opus is $35/mtok, gpt-4 is $40/mtok, gpt-4-turbo is $16/mtok, and gpt-4o is $8/mtok. I will go by the first publicly announced prices I see.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

• The O1 line of models will not count as they are not considered a new base model

• This market is intended to capture the price of the "Orion" model or equivalent new base model that represents the output of OpenAI's current training run

• Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will only resolve based on a new base model/pretrain, not RL tuned versions

  • O1 models are considered RL tunes of GPT-4 and will not count for resolution

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Updates:

  • Market duration extended by six months.

  • Resolution will be based on O3 prices if available, or ideally the prices of Orion directly released.

  • If GPT-4.5 is not available directly, will use the best estimate of GPT-4.5 prices.

• Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:

  • The market will now use the first announced price for the GPT-4.5/Orion model to determine the outcome.

  • This confirms that pricing for the model will be based on the initial pricing information released by OpenAI.

  • The clarification applies specifically to the pricing of the new base model (GPT-4.5/Orion) as opposed to any subsequent or RL-tuned versions.