How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost?

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Ṁ25k

Dec 31

58%

<$30

24%

$30-$100

13%

$100-$300

$300-$1000

1.7%

$1000+

OpenAI has recently announced that they are training a new frontier-scale model. How much will this model cost?

By "gpt-4.5" here I mean any model that is clearly announced as a more capable newer generation of model, ideally whatever is the output of the training run they are currently performing. If they call the model "gpt-5" or "gpt-4.25" or "gpt-next" or anything like this that will count as "gpt-4.5" for the purpose of this question.

This will be an average of input and output prices per million tokens, with the formula (output price + 2x input price) / 3. I will take the pricing for the cheapest option available that is the same model (e.g. gpt-4-8k, not gpt-4-32k). On this metric claude opus is $35/mtok, gpt-4 is $40/mtok, gpt-4-turbo is $16/mtok, and gpt-4o is $8/mtok. I will go by the first publicly announced prices I see.

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sold Ṁ92 <$30 YES

What happens if two new models are announced (like 4 & 3.5)? Will this take the price of the higher end one or the lower end? Eg if we get gpt 5 and gpt 4.5, which does the market use to resolve? If gpt 5, then higher numbers are in play.

@wrhall I hadn't considered this question. I suppose I mean the most expensive (presumably highest quality) model that they release. Thank you for the clarification.

I would note that as far as I can tell there haven't been two SOTA models released at the same time before.

bought Ṁ2,000 <$30 YES

@sophiawisdom this is $5/million input, $15/million output for gpt4o
https://openai.com/api/pricing/

I think this can resolve?

bought Ṁ1,000 $30-$100 YES

@chris The market was created after GPT-4o so doesn't refer to it.

@chris I don't count gpt-4o as gpt-4.5, given that it is inferior to gpt-4-turbo on a number of benchmarks (or at least not clearly superior). What I am primarily intending to capture in this market is the new frontier-scale model that OpenAI announced they were training recently. I listed gpt-4o in the description, which I think makes it clear I didn't count gpt-4o.

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