Resolves to the amount of days it takes for the average reduction of the cost for 1 Million Input and Output tokens for ChatGPT-4.5 as listed on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. For example, if input cost halves while output state the same, this counts as a 25% average reduction.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If GPT-4.5 never gets cheaper, the answer option representing "270 or more" days will be resolved YES.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that their intent is for this market to fully resolve after 270 days at the latest. If the price halving has not occurred by the 270-day mark, the market will be resolved at that time.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ38 | |
| 2 | Ṁ10 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
In the GPT 4.1 announcement it was said that GPT 4.5 will be deprecated in the API on July 14th, 2025. https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-1/#:~:text=We%20will%20also,future%20API%20models. No plans to cut API cost.
@JaySocrates hmm, I suppose I'll still just resolve them all NO as they pass, in case they ever bring it back or something? not that I think it's likely
@MingCat I never asked, but when GPT 4.5 is removed from the API on July 14th, will you resolve all no?
@JaySocrates I think I will err on the side of caution since theoretically they may rerelease 4.5 if they get it to be cheaper. I agree this is very unlikely, though.
@MingCat also, the "more" of 270 or more means I will resolve that YES after 270 days if 4.5 never gets cheaper, so that should be trading much higher
@MingCat when you said "or more", that seems to me to mean "the price halves after 270 days" not "after 270 or never".
@JaySocrates the intent was so that the market could fully resolve after 270 days at the latest, but yeah this was ambiguous and I should've made that clearer, my bad!
@MingCat you're good, single-digit mana doesn't matter. In the future, I'd just add a "never" option. I also think Manifold should fix this type of issue directly in the design of these expected date markets. I remember the Grok 3.5 market was displaying an expected release date of May 45th at one point.
@MingCat Resolves NO, It has been 30 days since it was available on the API. https://community.openai.com/t/gpt-4-5-is-live-in-the-api/1131571?utm_source=perplexity