Resolves to the amount of days it takes for the average reduction of the cost for 1 Million Input and Output tokens for ChatGPT-4.5 as listed on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. For example, if input cost halves while output state the same, this counts as a 25% average reduction.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If GPT-4.5 never gets cheaper, the answer option representing "270 or more" days will be resolved YES.
Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that their intent is for this market to fully resolve after 270 days at the latest. If the price halving has not occurred by the 270-day mark, the market will be resolved at that time.
1,000In the GPT 4.1 announcement it was said that GPT 4.5 will be deprecated in the API on July 14th, 2025. https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-1/#:~:text=We%20will%20also,future%20API%20models. No plans to cut API cost.
@JaySocrates hmm, I suppose I'll still just resolve them all NO as they pass, in case they ever bring it back or something? not that I think it's likely
@MingCat I never asked, but when GPT 4.5 is removed from the API on July 14th, will you resolve all no?
@JaySocrates I think I will err on the side of caution since theoretically they may rerelease 4.5 if they get it to be cheaper. I agree this is very unlikely, though.
@MingCat also, the "more" of 270 or more means I will resolve that YES after 270 days if 4.5 never gets cheaper, so that should be trading much higher
@MingCat when you said "or more", that seems to me to mean "the price halves after 270 days" not "after 270 or never".
@JaySocrates the intent was so that the market could fully resolve after 270 days at the latest, but yeah this was ambiguous and I should've made that clearer, my bad!
@MingCat you're good, single-digit mana doesn't matter. In the future, I'd just add a "never" option. I also think Manifold should fix this type of issue directly in the design of these expected date markets. I remember the Grok 3.5 market was displaying an expected release date of May 45th at one point.
@MingCat Resolves NO, It has been 30 days since it was available on the API. https://community.openai.com/t/gpt-4-5-is-live-in-the-api/1131571?utm_source=perplexity