How many days will it take for GPT-4.5's API price to at least halve?
6
150Ṁ1182
2026
83 days
expected
4%
Below 180
6%
Below 270
83%
270 or more

Resolves to the amount of days it takes for the average reduction of the cost for 1 Million Input and Output tokens for ChatGPT-4.5 as listed on https://openai.com/api/pricing/. For example, if input cost halves while output state the same, this counts as a 25% average reduction.

  • Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If GPT-4.5 never gets cheaper, the answer option representing "270 or more" days will be resolved YES.

  • Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that their intent is for this market to fully resolve after 270 days at the latest. If the price halving has not occurred by the 270-day mark, the market will be resolved at that time.

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