
I will be the judge of the reliability of any reports (and will generally follow the consensus of Manifold users sans the Zizians)
Update 2025-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timeframe and Validity of a Trade:
A valid trade is defined as any trade made by a confirmed Zizian.
The trade can occur at any time during 2025.
Update 2025-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Confirmed Zizian clarification
For an individual to be considered a confirmed Zizian, there must be external discussion or reference to the person being a Zizian outside of this market.
Self-description within this market is not sufficient.
Am I correct in thinking zizian here means this group?
@skibidist do you have an objective set of criteria for whether someone counts as actually part of the group? Is it just self description by the individual?
@TheAllMemeingEye Not really, but it's a good question. I would at the very least want people to have talked about the person being a Zizian outside of this market.
@skibidist I am also concerned about things that may occur when there's a collective effort to unmask a person/group of people on a website who are connected with serious crime. That can go very badly in many ways. I think it's sensible to at least ping the mods beforehand and ask them to weigh in on what should not be posted in the comments.
@MalachiteEagle Uhh, I haven't considered this angle, when making the market I was thinking about Luigi Mangione where it was officially confirmed he had an account.
I don't think people throwing personal accusations left and right is something that ever happened or is likely to happen on this site, though indeed the way this market is constructed could invite it. I would prefer people relied on common sense (as expressed in Manifold Terms of Use, i.e. no libel / harassment / incitement / doxing etc.) instead of having mods (who are a rather heterogeneous group) set up any guardrails pre-emptively. Should it get bad, someone will intervene.
Tenuous & forced links will never be enough to resolve an option on this market, so this is not a place to collect circumstantial evidence. I will N/A any options I deem were added with a malicious intent.
@skibidist One of my concerns is that this group targeted marginalised trans people. There's a strong possibility that there are people in that category who have some connection with the cult and who are also active members on manifold. I think that one of the issues is that it's unclear what the definition of a "zizian" is. Linking to the account of a dead cult member who went out with a bang in a highly publicised shoot-out is one thing. Pointing to evidence of association based on twitter/discord threads or whatever is probably something that will not end well.
@MalachiteEagle Note the Mira option is there because it's a recurring meme on manifold, not a witch hunt. Would not allow that with a random person.
@Bayesian Yes, any trade made by a confirmed Zizian at any time during 2025 and confirmed to my satisfaction by market close.
@MalachiteEagle Actually Ophelia traded in 2023, not 2024, so could add an option for 2024. This one is for 2025 though.