
BLM, Masks, Vaccines, Ukraine (so the current thing is not necessarily bad) - will the next one drop by the end of next year?
The resolution will have to be somewhat arbitrary. Here are the criteria I will consider:
It must be intrusively advocated such that an ordinary person cannot avoid it without extraordinary effort,
It must be known well enough that your grandmother has heard about it,
It must have a substantial duration, in no event less than 1 month,
It must have multiple news cycles within it,
It must be of wide international interest; I will check for spikes in Google Trends in at least three distinct countries,
It should be a polarizing issue,
It should be something that people put on their Facebook profile photos,
It should be placed in the bar on top of react.dev
The last two criteria are together sufficient, but not necessary.
I believe "je suis charlie" would be the borderline case that would resolve this as "yes". Anything less is a "no".
(Edit 2023-10-15) A question arose whether the situation is Israel might have created a new Current Thing. While it seemed so during the first couple of days when the "I stand with Israel" message dominated, it has faded within a week among reports of Palestinian casualties. It looks now that there won't be a distinct "intrusively advocated" current thing after a month, and the Israel situation won't resolve this market. Which made me realize a salient feature of all the past current things:
The current thing is always one-sided and the opposition marginalized
Note this is a corollary/clarification of the existing rules rather than a new rule.

🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ78 | |
2 | Ṁ50 | |
3 | Ṁ28 | |
4 | Ṁ24 | |
5 | Ṁ24 |
People are also trading
Idk, let’s assume that the statement « I acknowledge that Israelis have a right to be reasonably safe from terrorism even though I disapprove of their government’s actions in Gaza » translates to « I acknowledge that people have a right to take decisions about their own health even though I disapprove of them choosing not to vaccinate ». The first statement wouldn’t land me in trouble/canceled at work or in my social circle. The second one definitely would have back in covid days.
@mariopasquato It's not as extreme as covid vaccines I agree. I think it's more on par with BLM which also was a current thing back in the day.
I acknowledge that Israelis have a right to be reasonably safe from terrorism even though I disapprove of their government’s actions in Gaza
This phrasing is indicative of this being a current thing.
@lukres I realize that people have the right to resolve their markets as they please, even though… never mind :-D
@mariopasquato Out of curiosity. Do you consider Palestine to be the current thing now? Personally, I feel my resolution is even more valid in hindsight.
@skibidist ugh… it seems to me the intensity is more or less the same as a few months ago. It feels like there is not really much of a current thing at the moment. If I had to pick a current thing it would be Palestine yes, but it would feel arbitrary. Also I moved so I don’t drive by McGill’s entrance anymore for my commute, which makes the protesters much less salient.
I am resolving YES. The current thing is to support Hamas-governed Palestine.
It fits all the prerequisite criteria:
✅︎ It must be intrusively advocated such that an ordinary person cannot avoid it without extraordinary effort
✅︎ It must be known well enough that your grandmother has heard about it,
✅︎ It must have a substantial duration, in no event less than 1 month,
✅︎ It must have multiple news cycles within it,
✅︎ It must be of wide international interest; I will check for spikes in Google Trends in at least three distinct countries,
✅︎ It should be a polarizing issue,
✅︎ It should be something that people put on their Facebook profile photos,
❌ It should be placed in the bar on top of react.dev
and arguably
✅︎ The current thing is always one-sided and the opposition marginalized
We are having pretty much all news outlets sourcing their information directly form Hamas controlled authorities, and people with opposite views are generally marginalised, at least in most of the public discourse.
@lukres very poor decision imho. At least in britain this is incredibly contentious. We had a minor constitutional crisis concerning a parlimentary bill on this topic last week. Lots of people, including in the liberal media, very unhappy about Galloway being returned as MP.
@Kurgan I agree it's not completely one-sided, but I believe it is (internationally, in the public space) one-sided enough for the resolution. It's ultimately a subjective decision.
@lukres I’m not sure about western news orgs having an anti-Israel bias; If anything, the opposite seems to be the case: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/york-times-reviewing-reporter-liked-201554421.html
@nottelling2ccc I am open to be proven wrong, but this link does not seem like a support for your case. It's about NYT investigating and potential terminating an Israeli freelance contractor for liking some gauche Tweets.
@lukres > people with opposite views are generally marginalised, at least in most of the public discourse.
This is simply not the case. The US government as well as most European governments continue to support Israel, and it's very hard to be truly marginalised when you agree with the government. I think the case is easier to make that the pro Palestine people are the ones that are being marginalised, or at least I think they feel they are.
In any case, I sold my shares because I was not willing to take this risk. I think the war in Ukraine is still very much more a 'thing' than the Hamas-Israel war, and it is vastly more relevant to our national security (speaking from an European perspective), so in that sense there is definitely not a 'new' thing (or at least not one that replaced the other thing).
@lukres If Hamas-Israeli conflict continues more than 1month, do you think it is sufficient to resolve this to YES?
@yk It is very possible but not certain. I will be especially reluctant to resolve if the concern over Palestinian casualties begins to overshadow the "I stand with Israel" message. The current thing is always one-sided and the opposition marginalized.
The current thing is always one-sided and the opposition marginalized.
You should put that in the market description
@mariopasquato Insufficient on multiple criteria:
there wasn't that much advocating, only disappointment / anger
lack of sufficient international interest,
pretty much flamed out within a month (single steep spike on Google Trends)
It was relatively big news, but not the current thing.
There were women protests about abortion in Poland a while back. Those were clearly the current thing locally (with Facebook profile photos and all) - but would still fail the internationality criterion.
Regarding the image in the description: when, if ever, did people get QR codes tattooed on their forehead en masse? There are sources (e.g. Vice) providing evidence this was a thing some people did, but I can only find evidence of people getting QR tattooed on their arms. Either way, I'd say that it wasn't a big enough fad that "your grandmother knows about it." Also, no COVID vaccine syringe has that murky brown color as depicted in the image. (If you think I'm wrong on that last point, I'd like to see some evidence.)
@nottelling2ccc It's a caricature, certainly not all things on the image were ever the current thing. I would not know about the vaccine syringes.
@Kurgan It comes close, but I would not count it because of lack of international popularity - I may be wrong, but wasn't it mostly a US thing used to strengthen support for taking a harder line against China?
Thanks for the suggestion though, I will add an appropriate criterion.