20% chance of winning according to any betting site or prediction market, will be interpreted liberally, the condition is just to include serious candidates only

if some country elects heads of state named differently than a president, it will also count

• Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:

  • Presidential candidates must be individuals running on a personal ticket (in many cases, they symbolically resign party affiliation).

  • Candidates who are Prime Ministers or similar positions, being nominated by and representing a party choice, do not meet the intended criteria for this market.