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MANIFOLD
My USD net worth exceeds mana net worth
6
αΉ€200αΉ€338
2029
April 6, 2028
1%
2025
40%
2026
12%
2027
12%
2028
12%
2029
12%
2030
12%
2031 or later (or never)

current net worth USD: ~0, mana: 320k

  • Update 2026-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is a linked market, meaning all options will resolve at the same time.

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@skibidist what is your net worth

@JasonMendoza2008 How do you count shares in a private company?

@skibidist one dollar per share if it’s not valued publicly I guess

@JasonMendoza2008 Negative tens of k $ then

good argument could be made for a few million, but highly illiquid

@skibidist so 2025 resolves no?

@JasonMendoza2008 yea but this is linked market, so all options will have to resolve at the same time

Do you take jim's investment advice?

@jim To sell Tesla, to buy AGI-benefitting stocks, or something else?

@skibidist Buy far out of the money SPX and GOOGL LEAPS

@jim I may actually do it. To hedge in case my skills and/or startup get obsoleted by AGI. I am imaging it's a pretty short amount of time after AGI when the stocks get huge valuations but before ASI obsoletes all those things in favor of some new paradigm. Or maybe the current measures of wealth survive the transition and determine who gets more computation in the ASI era?

@skibidist hard to explain my argument for it quickly but yes, you got the conclusion. I think pre-ASI wealth has a decent change of being one of the factors which determines a person's post-ASI compute-budget.

@skibidist and since lifespan scales linearly with compute budget the law of diminishing marginal returns doesn't hold