Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?
Will a $1k non-invasive brain interface handle 100 commands before 2027?
13
1kṀ2092027
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In the youtube video "I literally connected my brain to GPT-4 with JavaScript" the author showcases mapping thoughts to commands on his computer using the Neurosity Crown device, which costs $999.
Resolution criteria (provisional):
This market resolves YES if before 2027 a consumer BCI device is sold for less than $1000 which can reliably interpret at least 100 different command mappings in real-time. The device cannot be surgically invasive.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Non-invasive Brain Computer Interfaces Become Common By 2040?
42% chance
Will cheap, portable, general purpose non-invasive brain-computer interfaces be commercially available by the year 2030?
15% chance
Will a brain-computer interface user vote and comment on this market by the end of 2025?
37% chance
Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <1000 neuron precision by 2030 ?
48% chance
Will Brain-Computer interfaces be widespread by 2035?
45% chance
Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <100 neuron precision by 2030 ?
26% chance
Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
30% chance
Will we see non-invasive holographic brain-computer interfaces with <10 000 neuron precision by 2030 ?
44% chance
By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?
2038
Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?
49% chance