Personally I expect more than coin-flip chances of having a BMI by then (almost a decade from now, that's like 3 more Chat-GPT to now timespans!). Although it might be considered explicitly for medical purposes if it's more mental health than intelligence enhancement related, and (legally & in terms of broad public acceptance) BMIs will likely proceed down a path of: ["physical" disability like paralysis and certain forms of blindness] --> ["mental" disability like other forms of blindness, schizophrenia or crushing depression] --> [mental health like moderate depression or neurodivergent overstimulation management] --> [explicit capability enhancement like increased intelligence]. Ofc, during the 2nd/3rd stages we may get capability enhancement alongside, but only for approved individuals, similar to GPL-1s/Ozempic facilitating weight loss in diabetic patients before it was legalized for weight loss for everyone.

We're already years into the first one, we'll hit the 2nd one for sure before market resolution even with a global recession into prolonged AI winter, and the 3rd easily comes into reach in more median AI accelerated scenarios, with the 4th likely relying on strong AGI/RSI impacts.

@DavidHiggs if the tech gets good enough, non-invasive bcis will spread the fastest. I saw a startup trying to popularize stylish bci hats that I'd totally wear, but they haven't launched the product yet I think

@SimoneRomeo That's a good point, I was only thinking of invasive lol. I guess I should buy more yes shares then