Top 5 most useful tests for AGI
25
15kṀ4381
2026
60%
Build, debug and test until its of sufficient quality, a complex piece of software like a mobile app including a backend service
56%
Beating Pokemon games
52%
HCAST - METR
50%
ARC-AGI (any version)
48%
Wozniak Coffee Test (requires controlling a robot)
34%
Opinion poll of Manifold userbase
30%
Predict the output of an arbitrary set of NAND gates and inputs

Note: I'll reimburse anyone the cost of adding an answer (regardless of what it is), and also reimburse any further answers that refer to specific benchmarks (e.g. AgentBench).

I'd like to find out what Manifold thinks are the 5 best benchmarks of this kind.

Ideally they should have fairly objective protocols for evaluating the agent/system under test, but since I can't really define that rigorously myself, I will let people add and vote whatever they like.

At the end of January 2026, I'll conduct a poll to select the 5 winners.

I won't bet.

Linked market:

/singer/an-algorithm-exists-that-can-run-on

  • Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified that the answer option ARC-AGI (any version) includes both ARC-AGI-1 and ARC-AGI-2. The creator has also noted that this option has been updated.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy