Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if 15 or more US citizens die in Mexico between now and March 7, 2026. Deaths must be confirmed by the U.S. State Department through official Consular Reports of Death of U.S. Citizens Abroad (CRODA) or verified by major news outlets citing official sources. The deaths may result from any cause (violence, accidents, natural causes, etc.) occurring within Mexico's borders. Resolution will be determined by checking the U.S. State Department's official death reporting records and cross-referencing with news reports as of March 7, 2026.

Background

On February 22, 2026, Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was killed in a security operation by the Mexican Army in Tapalpa, Jalisco, Mexico. The operation sparked clashes in the area, resulting in shootouts, explosions and multiple vehicles and stores being set on fire throughout the state and much of the rest of the country. The US Department of State issued a "shelter in place" alert for US citizens in parts of Mexico affected by criminal activity and road blockages after a top cartel leader was killed by local authorities.

An estimated 73 people have been killed since the violence broke out, some 25 of whom were with Mexican security forces, along with members of Jalisco New Generation Cartel. However, as of the latest reports, there are no confirmed reports of any Americans being hurt, kidnapped, or killed in the immediate aftermath of El Mencho's death.

Considerations

The 10-day window (February 25 to March 7) is relatively short for accumulating 15 deaths. In 2021 and 2022, 393 U.S. citizen deaths of non-natural causes occurred in Mexico, averaging roughly 196 per year or about 3.8 per week. Reaching 15 deaths in 10 days would require a significant spike above baseline rates. While current violence is severe, claims of Americans being targeted in the chaos were the only reports, with no corroborating reports, suggesting cartels may not be deliberately targeting US citizens despite the broader unrest.

This description was generated by AI.