this market is for a recent tweet from Elon Musk:
his subsequent reply was that Grok - the twitter/X AI - will be Grand Master. the market is only for the claim that chess will be fully solved by May 2034, not that Grok specifically will take the Grand Master title
the first time a computer beat a chess master was IBM's Deep Blue in 1997. checkers was weakly solved in 2007 after 16 years of effort.
will Elon's prediction that chess will be Fully Solved within 10 years be true?
1,000
(From "Programming a Computer for Playing Chess" by Claude Shannon, 1950)
We know the algorithm for "solving chess" given unbounded computing power. You don't get unbounded computing power in this universe. I expect, and believe mathematicians/theorists would agreee, all attempts at "perfect chess" by computers we can build - even with "qP !== P" quantum computer stuff - will merely be an approximation.
10^120 >> # of atoms in the observable universe (~10^80)
@PlasmaBallin He’s also shit talked chess before, saying it’s too simple compared to modern strategy games. I don’t think he gets the point of the game in the first place, much less how you’d go about solving it.