Will the Biden market surpass LK-99 in total number of traders?
Will the Biden market surpass LK-99 in total number of traders?
18
1kṀ9772resolved Jul 20
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
currently, @NathanpmYoung is ~400 traders away from having the largest market on Manifold:
/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
surpassed only by @QuantumObserver's LK-99 market:
/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Nathan's market resolves with the formal announcement of the official Democratic nominee for a Presidential candidate - any time between now and the DNC (Aug 19-22)
resolves yes: when the Biden market holds the top position in a list sorted by total traders as shown below
resolves no: if the Biden market closes without surpassing LK-99
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1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ170 | |
| 2 | Ṁ140 | |
| 3 | Ṁ105 | |
| 4 | Ṁ75 | |
| 5 | Ṁ60 |
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.