this market is for the first VP Debate of the 2024 election run up. the current R VP nominee is JD Vance, though there are rumours he could be replaced. this market is for whoever is the final R VP running for office.
resolves when the debate takes place.
to start, I've added people named in the below tweet from the Trump camp, as well as a couple with high(ish) probabilities in the Polymarket Dem VP market.
open for further submissions, but I will NA unserious answers. please comment if you'd like me to add it for you.
added from the comments:
I think there's a low chance of that (a three-person debate including Dem, Rep, and Ind VPs) happening but it's non-zero of course. if the debate includes Rep VP+Shanahan+Dem VP I'll resolve 50% each for the two people the R VP debates.
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good point - I think there's a low chance of that happening but it's non-zero of course. if the debate (if there are multiple debates this resolves to the first one of course) includes Vance+Shanahan+Dem VP I'll resolve 50% for the two people he debates.
I'm NAing this - this market is for who the Republican VP (Vance, or whoever replaces him if he's removed from R VP nominee) will debate, so this is an unrealistic addition.
edited to add: I apparently can't NA this on a dependent market. :(
@traders per the comments below (and rumours of Vance being replaced) I've updated the title and description to reflect that this market is or Vance or whoever replaces him on the ticket. this doesn't change the function of this market (speculating on the D VP) of course, and ensures it won't NA for something silly like a VP swap.
good question; I think @shankypanky this should probably resolve to "there will be no debate"? or do you want to change the title/description to "who will the Rep VP nominee debate?:
i feel like the latter makes more sense, so this market stays alive through a storm like that. "there is no VP debate" resolving YES wouldn't be true if there was one so it'd probably all NA in that case. If we change title/description to exclude Vance, and just Republican VP i don't think it could NA.
@ZacParker thanks for calling this out, when I made the market I of course didn't anticipate Vance being on thin ice and potentially replaced ๐ I'll update the title to include alternatives as Ben mentioned - it doesn't change anything for this market and I definitely don't want to NA it for something silly like that.
it's a Dependent market and no options can resolve yes/no until all options resolve (meaning one answer resolves Yes and all others No).
even if it were Independent, however, I wouldn't resolve it now because she is not the officially nominated Presidential candidate and there's no rush to consider her entirely out of the running for VP, even if the idea of her being VP to another Presidential candidate is highly improbable at best.