Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States. He's also the first president to take office with a felony conviction on his record.
At the time of market creation, there are 38 countries that do not allow travellers with a felony record to enter. Which of these countries will Trump travel to during his current presidential term?
for the purpose of this market, I will only resolve to official foreign trips made by Donald Trump during his presidential term - this market will not resolve to layovers (whether planned or unplanned) in any of the countries listed, or visits to their embassy/consulate/similar (whether in the US or elsewhere)
resolves Yes when Trump physically lands in that country and is admitted without incident, no matter the length of the trip or why he leaves (if he cuts his trip short due to protests, conflict, an emergency, a sudden desire to golf at Mar-a-Lago, etc. it will not affect the resolution for that country)
to avoid splitting hairs, I will resolve for countries that do not allow the average traveller to enter with a felony record - this is to avoid digging for any exceptions to this rule
before resolving, I will doublecheck to be sure the country does/did, at the time of his visit, still prohibit travel from felons
once a country resolves Yes, I will add it back to the list with the following year listed - multiple visits in a single year will only resolve to the first visit
at the end of each year, all open answers for that year resolve No, and a new option will be added for the following year
on Inauguration Day 2029 (20 Jan), all open answers will resolve No
The countries Trump visited in his first presidential term were:
please @ me in the comments with evidence of the trip when requesting resolution. mods may resolve on my behalf if I've left the site, but please give me a chance to address it myself first.
Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Disputed Territory Resolution Clarifications
Disputed Territories: If Trump physically lands in disputed territory (e.g., areas in Ukraine invaded and controlled by Russia), it will be considered a visit to the country, as long as he is admitted and the landing qualifies as an official entry.
Arrival Location: The actual airport or port of entry is important. For instance, if he lands at an airport in one country before moving to a disputed area, the landing location and the customs process will be key in determining the country of entry.
Purpose of Visit: The official nature and purpose of the visit will play a role. If his activities suggest official business with the host country, that factors into resolution.
General Principle: In cases involving disputed territories or ambiguities, resolution will consider both the physical landing point and the intent of the visit.
Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Arrival Location Emphasis: If Trump lands at an airport like Ben Gurion, his entry is counted as entry into that country (e.g., Israel), even if he then travels by land or smaller aircraft to adjacent territories.
Disputed Territory in Ukraine: Any part of Ukraine where Russian troops are present will be considered part of Ukraine for resolution. If, however, there is a legal redrawing of borders with international recognition before a visit, the visit will count for the country to which that territory legally belongs at the time.
General Principle: The determination of a visit will continue to be based on the actual landing point and the intended official purpose of the visit.
1,000People are also trading
@shankypanky If he travels to disputed territory, how will you treat that? (Specifically asking about Ukraine/Russia, but I guess this question applies to other places in the world too)
@jcb hm that's a good question. based on the fact that for all intents and purposes, Russia has invaded and is on Ukrainian land, I would consider that a visit to Ukraine if he's in the disputed territory (even if that's a longshot and even if he decides to go there to speak with Putin or representatives).
probably also good to be practical and consider the airport where he lands for his visit. I can't imagine a scenario where he would arrive at Ben Gurion, for example, and not speak to any official Israeli business before zipping off to the Palestinian Territories but for the sake of tourism laws, if an average person with a felony record wanted to arrive and go straight to the West Bank to volunteer, they'd be subject to customs intake in Israel which is on the list.
I know there are other places in the world with disputes so I can't unfortunately speak to every exact instance at the moment, but I think we should consider where he arrives and what his meeting purpose is as factors for resolution. does that sound fair? glad to hear other perspectives and a good call to clear it up somewhat.
@shankypanky it sounds like it actually should resolve to the country that de facto controls a disputed area. Like in your example, if he lends in Tel-Aviv and then goes to occupied territories, it doesn't make a lot of sense to count this as a visit to two countries, because, well, for all purposes we care about in a presidental foreign trip he was in one
@StepanBakhmarin yeah that's my thinking and I believe it will be cut and dried when/if it happens. if he lands at Ben Gurion, he's admitted into Israel and needs to travel by land (or smaller aircraft like a helicopter I guess) to one of the territories and I can't imagine any scenario where I couldn't count his touching down in TLV as a visit from a felon to Israel. same in the parallel universe where he lands in Egypt then travels to the territories somehow lol
but yes, I agree, and that's where my head is at. I consider any part of Ukraine that has Russian troops on the ground trying to take it over to still be Ukraine. if between now and the end of Trump's term there is some legal redrawing of borders and international recognition of land "changing hands" so to speak and then Trump visits, it would count for the county that region legally belongs to.