Resolution criteria

The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, initiating the 2026 Iran war. This market resolves YES if the US deploys ground combat troops into Iranian territory by April 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the US Department of Defense, CENTCOM, or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming boots on Iranian soil. The deadline is April 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.

Background

The United States carried out its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, deploying air, naval, and missile defense assets amid escalating tensions with Iran, which the United States has attributed to Iran's nuclear program, the 2025–2026 Iranian protests, and a government crackdown that killed thousands of demonstrators. At least 2,500 Marines and sailors deployed aboard the USS Tripoli have entered the region, bringing aviation assets, equipment and rapid-response ground units. The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz. The plans, which fall short of a full invasion, could involve raids by special operations and conventional infantry troops.

Considerations

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated, "We've taken control of Iran's airspace and waterways without boots on the ground." However, uncertainty looms over Trump's approval of the Pentagon's plans for limited ground operations in Iran's strategic regions. The distinction between troops positioned in the region and troops actually deployed on Iranian soil is critical for resolution. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a congressional briefing that the US may need to physically secure nuclear material inside Iran, saying "People are going to have to go and get it."

This description was generated by AI.