Will Manifold take a market down in 2023?

730Ṁ2101

resolved Jan 25

Resolved

ALL

resolves YES if a market is taken down by the Manifold team before Jan 1 2024.

resolves NO otherwise.

related, all quotes from @DavidChee, on Above the Fold (Manifold's official newsletter):

"...we [Manifold's team] don’t have a policy for deleting markets for infosec reasons. Manifold Markets believes in radical transparency - almost all of our Notion work documents, salaries, and internal meeting notes are public.

...

Manifold likely will continue to not delete markets for infosec reasons. But, we haven’t had the chance to fully discuss this within the team, so don’t take this to be a hard stance.

Deleting a market is unprecedented, so even if we were convinced that the market does more harm than good, it probably wouldn’t be the solution due to the attention it draws."

(https://open.substack.com/pub/manifoldmarkets/p/manifold-predicted-the-ai-extinction?r=1eev15&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post)

A Manifold Market “Leaked” the AI Extinction Statement and CAIS Wanted it Deleted

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edit: i'll resolve this by asking @DavidChee on jan1 2024. this will resolve based on his response.

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@SirSalty Did any markets get taken down in 2023?

@Eliza Nop

I did pseudo-delete a small personal market at someone's request earlier this month which I believe was the first time it has happened.

Don't know if our stance has changed regarding infosec stuff tho.

@saulmunn Please resolve this. Thanks!!

This feels like a bounty for the most repugnant market possible to force Manifold into deleting a market.

@ShitakiIntaki this market is aimed at manifold taking down markets for infosec/infohazard reasons, not for repugnant/politicall incorrect/etc reasons. that said, it probably doesn't change the fact that this market might act as a bounty for repugnancy, but i wanted to clarify my intent.

I think there’s a substantial chance that this happens but the market resolves NO, because Manifold does occasionally delete markets for personal privacy reasons - I know of an example from 2022, at least. Under many rationales for deleting a market, Manifold wouldn’t want to publicize it.