Will I consistently work weekends in 10 years?
11
208
2033
36%
chance

conditional on that i am working in 10 years.

i've been working for the last ~6 months, and have been working weekends for all of them.

background: i told @SirSalty and @NZ that i hate how people don't work on weekends, and they said "we'll see how you'll think about that in 10 years!"

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Weren't we supposed to have a meeting? Whatever happened to that?

@jeremiahsamroo hey, if you’re the jeremiah from princeton, i think you might’ve missed the call we had booked (although there’s a good chance i’m misremembering and it was my mistake!) — feel free to book another one here: savvycal.com/saulmunn/forecasting-clubs

@saulmunn I can't seem to find the confirmation email -- it may have gotten lost since or gone to my spam. I apologize and I will book another later this fall. I am on a leave of absence right now, so my ability to do anything wrt establishing a new club is limited until January. Cheers!

Why do you hate when people don’t work weekends? 😤

predicts NO

What counts as consistently working weekends? Would every other weekend count? What about 80% of weekends?

@NoaNabeshima if taking weekends is a part of my routine, i’d count it — does that help?

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I'm used to not having a fixed work schedule and then just working on the weekends if it "feels right". It seems to me like your proposed operationalization assumes you'll have something like a routine for a work week in 2033, which I think you might not have. I kind of want the operationalization to be crisper and unambiguous in some way.

@NoaNabeshima yeah, that’s fair. ping me after manifest and i’ll make it a lot more crisp