If I’m dead by the end of the year, why will I have died?
11
540Ṁ1378
resolved Jan 10
ResolvedN/A
70%
Accident (unintentional injury)
5%
Homicide
7%
Suicide
3%
Stroke
3%
Heart issue (incl heart attack, etc)
0.2%
Cancer
5%
Unclear/unknown
6%
Other not listed here

i've asked @DavidChee to resolve this if i'm dead.* resolves to N/A if i'm alive. i will not bet in this market, but i may boost and/or subsidize it.

*he has agreed to do this for me as a one off as an experiment to see what sort of info this market will yield, but wants it to be clear he won't do this for everyone.

relevant details:

  • 19 years old; male; white; 5ft10in; ~135 pounds; live in north america; ethnicity = jewish; family income is in the highest tax bracket; father is a doctor; i've never broken a bone; i've never had a life-threatening hospital visit; i'm in college, taking a semester off (organizing OPTIC and Manifest!)

  • risk factors: i travel a lot (1-8 flights/month, median 2); i'm under a lot of background stress; i've acted in the direction of suicide before (but never officially attempted suicide, nor ever self-harmed before); my mother had the BRCA gene, which puts me at a higher risk of male breast cancer; my father has atrial fibrilation (heart condition), which can be passed down genetically

  • there are a couple other risk factors, that i'd be happy to tell anyone about over DMs (but not publicly). they're pretty relevant if you want an accurate estimate, but i don’t want to discuss them publicly.

i will not bet on this market.

hopefully, i'll be the one resolving this market LMAO

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