If I’m dead by the end of the year, why will I have died?

540Ṁ1378

resolved Jan 10

ResolvedN/A

70%

Accident (unintentional injury)

Homicide

Suicide

Stroke

Heart issue (incl heart attack, etc)

0.2%

Cancer

Unclear/unknown

Other not listed here

i've asked @DavidChee to resolve this if i'm dead.* resolves to N/A if i'm alive. i will not bet in this market, but i may boost and/or subsidize it.

*he has agreed to do this for me as a one off as an experiment to see what sort of info this market will yield, but wants it to be clear he won't do this for everyone.

relevant details:

19 years old; male; white; 5ft10in; ~135 pounds; live in north america; ethnicity = jewish; family income is in the highest tax bracket; father is a doctor; i've never broken a bone; i've never had a life-threatening hospital visit; i'm in college, taking a semester off (organizing OPTIC and Manifest!)
risk factors: i travel a lot (1-8 flights/month, median 2); i'm under a lot of background stress; i've acted in the direction of suicide before (but never officially attempted suicide, nor ever self-harmed before); my mother had the BRCA gene, which puts me at a higher risk of male breast cancer; my father has atrial fibrilation (heart condition), which can be passed down genetically
there are a couple other risk factors, that i'd be happy to tell anyone about over DMs (but not publicly). they're pretty relevant if you want an accurate estimate, but i don’t want to discuss them publicly.

i will not bet on this market.

hopefully, i'll be the one resolving this market LMAO

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just resolved this N/A, and i'm very happy that i did :)

still alive!

Risky to make this, someone may kill you for the mana payout

@ThomasMurphy yup. i’m weighing P(i decrease my chances of death based on the results of this market) and P(someone kills me for the mana payout).

given a few things (that mana can only be “used” for charity, and those who give to charity don’t usually enjoy killing; that manifold is a relatively tiny site, with few users; that it would likely be quite clear if someone did this), i think the second probability is extraordinarily low, and the first one is fairly high.

e.g., this market has nudged me slightly further toward going to therapy, and taking fewer risks that might lead to car accidents.

btw this market has pretty low incentives for betting because the only time we ever win money is if you die, which 1. feels bad and 2. is pretty unlikely from what I can tell so is probably just going to N/A

@DavidChee Anyways betting cancer, stroke and heart down bc even if you are pre-disposed to them, a stroke and heart attack at ur age even if they are occur are likely to kill you. likewise cancer wouldn't kill you by the end of the year even if you were diagnosed now unless it was incredibly advanced already