Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
3
12
Ṁ45Ṁ90
2030
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. This is the threshold I will also be using for this market. I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
Get Ṁ200 play money
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