A military coup has been announced in Gabon on 08-30-2023.
Paraphrased from DW:
A group of senior Gabonese military officers made a televised announcement on Wednesday, stating their decision to invalidate the outcome of the recent national election, asserting concerns about its credibility. This move followed the state electoral body's declaration of President Ali Bongo as the winner of a third term. These officers, purporting to represent all of Gabon's security and defense forces, declared the dissolution of "all the institutions of the republic."
Their stated reason for this intervention was what they described as "irresponsible and unpredictable governance," which they believed had led to a deteriorating social climate. Their aim was to restore peace by ending the current regime. The announcement, broadcast on the Gabon 24 TV channel, was made on behalf of a group calling itself the "Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions. In a related development, there were reports of gunfire heard in the capital city of Libreville, as reported by the news agency AFP.
YES if the coupists are able to take and maintain control of the government for at least seven days or are able to achieve a definitive majority of their goals (specific goals unknow at the time of market creation - will update in comments).
Fyi: the most recent coup attempt in Gabon happened in 2019.
1,000
1.00I would rate the coup as successful:
Military has assumed full control over Gabon
President Bongo and his government have been ousted, arrested and charged
Election results were annulled and all associated institutions (government, senate, national assembly, constitutional court) dissolved
International borders were closed for three days but have since been reopened
General Nguema was announced as transitional (though so far there hasn't been much appetite for a rapid transition back to civilian government...) president
He was sworn in today (09-04-23)
I will still wait out the full 7 days (per the description) to resolve this, should anything happen until then. I do not believe this will be the case.
There is a video going around with misleading title from last year apparently, but it points to corruption that people have complained about:
https://prnigeria.com/2023/09/01/gabons-senate-president-money/
my takeaways after less than 24h and a quick twitter scroll:
- coup broadly successful
- Bongo under house arrest
- transition leader has been announced
- military has flipped
- no widespread protests or unrest
- some celebrations on the streets in favor of the coup (seemingly spontaneous)
- international "outrage" quite limited
Praetorian Guard vibes from this one... (without the bloodshed so far)
Out of the 486 attempted or successful military coups carried globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the largest number with 214, of which at least 106 have been successful.
@jskf yeah about half fail.
@jskf I think I read recently from following the Niger coup that if it a coup is still around after 24 hours the coup will likely succeed.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/30/mapping-africas-coups-detat-across-the-years
I think a base rate historically is ~50% for a coup succeeding Africa (106/214 according to the above).
It doesn't seem like there is an optimistic attitude for the coup failing:
1) The Niger coup succeeded so far.
2) Reports of people in Gabon already expecting violence before the election and evacuating the capital.
3) It has already been more than 12 hours since the announcement of the coup.
4) Apparently,the president has already been arrested..
https://twitter.com/Scheenadonia/status/1696864139191189849
https://twitter.com/Scheenadonia/status/1696845819096211785
5) I don't know how much public support there is for the ousted party and government (the PDG) (these are chants from Akanda apparently to get rid of the PDG) (these twitter posts are from an apparent supporter of the coup so it is difficult to tell):
https://twitter.com/Scheenadonia/status/1696793658593345953
6) Searching social media for a short while I couldn't find any reports or posts from PDG or from the GNG, and the facebook page for the GNG is not public.
Some notes:
The internet was reportedly cut a few days ago but now shows some partial restoration as of this morning:
https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1696785467075633272
There was a coup in 2019 that failed (called Operation Dignity), and at the time the Republican Guard (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabonese_Republican_Guard) (under the Gendarmerie nationale gabonaise (GNG) and apparently coordinating with another intervention group) helped end the coup.
Now, it appears the Republican Guard has sided with the coup as there are reports that the head of the Republican Guard (General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema) has been announced the leader of the transition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_for_the_Transition_and_Restoration_of_Institutions):
Background about the purported new head of the transition:
https://twitter.com/radio_balafon/status/1696881635612893443
Since I don't speak French, here is an AI transcription/translation of the relevant part of the interview:
"
Well, he's a general who was previously a colonel. He earned his stripes, it must be said, within the Gabonese presidency. He climbed the ranks, also the son of a military man who worked in the AGR, which is the Republican Guard. So, he spent a long time in Morocco, which always considered him, of course, as if he were somewhat in exile. He worked there in the intelligence air services, and afterward, he returns to Gabon after President Ali's stroke in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. That's how he returned to intelligence services, and some time later, he was appointed to head the DGSS, the General Directorate of Security and Surveillance, if I'm not mistaken, for the security services. He rose to the rank of general, and some time after, he took command of the GER, the Republican Guard. This just goes to show the trust that has been placed in him by the head of state. Recently, he enacted a reform aimed at strengthening the security around the head of state, with nearly 300 men, including highly trained sharpshooters. So, was he already preparing the ground somewhat, as they say? But upon entering, as they say, 'embracing to better suffocate,' we cannot know. Nevertheless, he is a man seasoned in military tasks, so he knows the terrain well, he knows the intricacies, and it can even be said that he is the brain behind the presidential and Gabonese security of the last three years. So today, he is truly someone who knows exactly what he's talking about, and he knows where to touch what. Earlier, you followed the people who were apprehended to answer for their actions. It's important to know that he speaks with supporting evidence; he doesn't just talk without basis. He's someone who has really studied, who has assembled a team, and if I choose my words carefully, I believe that this coup d'état is not incidental; it is deliberate, and it has been planned for a very long time.
"