Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?
9
130
210
2027
33%
chance

There was recently a military coup in Niger that ousted their president, Mohamed Bazoum. There is talk of an invasion by ECOWAS to restore him to power and to remove the military dictatorship that has taken over the country. This market seeks to predict if any invasion of Niger actually follows through and reinstates the president to de facto control of the country.

I am congnizent of the fact that "de facto control" is somewhat tenuous to define. So, for simplicity, a few criteria.

  • Must be able to move of his own free will and not be a (de facto) prisoner of the Nigerien junta, ECOWAS alligned forces, or anyone really.

  • The contnued presence of foreign troops in the country to restore order is fine so long as it can be reasonably evaluated that he is not simply their puppet.

  • The Junta / affiliated groups cannot control significant parts of the country. If the capital city is divided between pro and anti Junta forces, then even if Mohamed Bazoum isn't under their control, he still is not in de facto control of Niger. If there are a few hundered people with a few dozen cars in the Sahara desert trying to bitterly resist the restored government but only control a town or two, then he would have de facto control of the country.

Will resolve NA if no invasion and the talk of an invasion dies down. Will resolve No if a new provisional government is established and Mohamed Bazoum is not playing a presiding roll in it. Will resolve yes if, well, he is restored to de-facto control. Not to toot my own horn, but I do have a Master's in political science, so I think I am capable of reaonably making a case for what de-facto control of a country is when I see it. I would be more than happy to add further elaboration upon "de facto control" as needed / requested.

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