Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, an official government commission (bipartisan or independent) or a major peer-reviewed study credibly concludes that AI-generated misinformation or synthetic media changed the outcome of a national election (head of government/state or national legislative control) in any OECD country. 'May have contributed' without concluding the outcome flipped does not count. Otherwise NO.

Created to price the severity (not frequency) of AI misinformation harms.

Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe. Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.