What will be the best result an LLM based model gets in the 2025 IMO under fair conditions?

1kṀ5424

Jul 18

Perfect score

(non-perfect) Gold medal

13%

Silver medal

36%

Bronze medal

27%

Honorable mention

16%

No medal

Will resolve approx 1 week after the IMO problems are publicly released.
The model must have as input only the english+latex version of the problems.
Must not be a proof-seach specific model (aka not alpha-proof). This is a pseudo-benchmark for how good General AIs are at creative math. O3 and such are fair play
Ai must have same time constraints as competitors but no compute constraints, obviously no online access.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?

Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?

31% chance

What will I get at IMO 2025?

Will I get top 10 at IMO?

24% chance

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

What will happen at IMO 2025?

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

17% chance

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Sort by:

Who will perform the evaluation within 1 week of IMO?

You realize grading solutions takes time of professional mathematicians/math olympians? And since there are ~5 candidate LLMs with different computer budgets, i think this question has no chance to be resolved objectively.

@mathvc LLM as a judge? I believe that they release grading guides (I might be totally wrong)

@AdamCzene at least as of April 2025 LLMs are not a reliable verifier of correct/wrong solution in informal language. They mostly output vibes instead of real verification