What will be the best result an LLM based model gets in the 2025 IMO under fair conditions?
22
Ṁ1kṀ6.9kJul 18
0.9%
Perfect score
4%
(non-perfect) Gold medal
9%
Silver medal
11%
Bronze medal
64%
Honorable mention
10%
No medal
Will resolve approx 1 week after the IMO problems are publicly released.
The model must have as input only the english+latex version of the problems.
Must not be a proof-seach specific model (aka not alpha-proof). This is a pseudo-benchmark for how good General AIs are at creative math. O3 and such are fair play
Ai must have same time constraints as competitors but no compute constraints, obviously no online access.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?
10/8/27
Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
72% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
14% chance
How many points above the gold cutoff will the best 2026 IMO AI get?
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@AdamCzene at least as of April 2025 LLMs are not a reliable verifier of correct/wrong solution in informal language. They mostly output vibes instead of real verification
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Related questions
When will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?
10/8/27
Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
72% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
14% chance
How many points above the gold cutoff will the best 2026 IMO AI get?