Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if President Trump imposes a 100% tariff on the majority of all Canadian imports. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government announcements, executive orders, or proclamations published on the White House website or Federal Register. The tariff must be formally implemented and take effect to resolve YES. If Trump threatens but does not implement a 100% tariff, or implements a rate below 100%, the market resolves NO.

Background

On January 24, 2026, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada makes a trade deal with China. This threat follows a year of escalating trade tensions. Trump previously imposed 25% tariffs on Canada on February 1, 2025, and many Canadian products have been hit with a 35% tariff, while steel and aluminum face rates of 50%. Recently, Canada agreed to cut its 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in return for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products as part of a new strategic partnership with China.

Considerations

The 100% tariff threat is conditional on Canada reaching a trade deal with China, which creates ambiguity about whether the threat would be triggered. Additionally, Trump has made numerous tariff threats throughout 2025 that were not fully implemented or were modified through negotiations, suggesting threats do not always materialize as stated.