Resolution criteria - before 31st Jan 2026
This market resolves YES if the Trump administration publicly states they will impose tariffs on any country whose central bank signed the joint statement of solidarity with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, signed by central bank chiefs including those from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Brazil, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, South Korea, Australia, and Canada.
Resolution requires an explicit statement from Trump administration officials (president, Treasury Secretary, Trade Representative, or equivalent) announcing tariff intentions against one or more of these signatory countries specifically because of their support for Powell. The statement must be made via official channels (press release, executive order, public remarks, or official social media).
Background
Global central bankers issued a statement Tuesday defending U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the launch of a criminal investigation into the central bank chief. Powell has come under sustained pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower interest rates. During his second term as President, Donald Trump enacted a series of steep tariffs affecting nearly all goods imported into the country, with the overall average effective US tariff rate rising from 2.5% to as high as 27% from January to April 2025.
Considerations
The Trump administration has already imposed tariffs on most major trading partners for various stated reasons (trade deficits, national security, fentanyl concerns). Determining whether any new tariff announcements are specifically motivated by the Powell letter versus existing tariff policy would require explicit administration statements linking the two.
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution timeline has been changed from December 31, 2026 to January 31, 2026. The market will now resolve based on whether the Trump administration makes the required statement by January 31, 2026 (previously stated as "before 31st Jan 2026" in the original criteria, but the market close date has now been updated to match).
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The resolution timeline seems way too long on this. If the Trump admin reacts to this letter it will be within a couple weeks, not a year after the fact when it's old news. Would you mind changing it to Jan 31st or Feb 28th? To make things fair, I can guarantee to the small YES holders that if somehow this happens after the new resolution date I will personally send them their winnings.